The price is likely to range between $1.1012 and $1.1072 today.
My EUR/USD signal last Monday was not triggered, as none of the key levels were quite reached during the day’s London session, although the high of the day was less than 2 pips below my resistance level at $1.1072.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may be entered before 5pm London time today only.
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1072, $1.1089, or $1.1142.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Idea
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1012 or $1.0956.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Monday that we were seeing a weakly bearish and consolidative pattern in the price movement, with new closer support and resistance levels printing. I thought that this pointed towards lower volatility and more ranging price action with the price likely to remain between $1.1000 and $1.1072 over the day, but if the price could break below the big round number at $1.1000 it would be likely to fall to $1.0955.
This was a good call as the range I indicated held during the London session last Monday, with the price then going on to break below $1.1000 the next day and fall to a low very close to $1.0955.
The price has recovered as the US Dollar has stopped rising over the past few days, except for a few short-term surges, so we see the price remain quite consolidative and choppy with a few key levels close by. We now have a weakly bullish short-term consolidation above the support level at $1.1012, but it is far from clear what direction the price will take today.
There are probably better currency pairs or crosses to be trading today, such as some of the Japanese Yen crosses like GBP.JPY, or the USD/JPY pair, as there is more directional movement and volatility in the Yen. If you really want to trade EUR/USD today, I think the current picture is most suitable for scalpers looking for a long trade between $1.1000 and $1.1012, or a short trade if the price reaches $1.1072 and makes a short-term pronounced bearish reversal there.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the EUR or the USD, but the release of British CPI (inflation) data at 7am London time may cause some volatility in the British pound.
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