RBA Makes Dovish Pass on Rate Hike

The Reserve Bank of Australia has announced it will be maintaining its interest rate at 4.10%, contrary to wide expectations that it would raise its rate by 0.25%.


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  1. The Reserve Bank of Australia has surprised the market by keeping rates on hold at 4.10%. It was expected to hike by 25 basis points. The Bank included conditional tightening language in its Rate Statement, but it looks increasingly likely that the terminal rate in the current tightening cycle has been reached now. The Aussie reacted by losing value, and the Australian stock market by gaining slightly.
  2. Stock markets look mostly bullish today, as Asian markets continue to rally. The HSI and the Nikkei 225 Index are both looking like closing higher for the day.
  3. In the Forex market, the US Dollar is continuing its medium-term advance against its long-term bearish trend, with the price now threatening to break above key resistance at 101.56. Since the Tokyo session began today, the Australian Dollar is the weakest major currency, while the US Dollar is the strongest, putting the AUD/USD currency pair in focus.
  4. There will be releases today in the US of JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
  5. Energies are continuing to rally, with WTI Crude Oil futures hitting a new 3-month high again yesterday, on evidence of supply shortages. This might be of interest to trend traders.
  6. In the commodities market, Cocoa futures will continue to be interesting on the long side to trend traders, having hit a multi-year high price last Thursday.
  7. There will be a release today in New Zealand of Unemployment Rate data.
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