Asian Stocks Gain as Risk Rally Continues

Last week’s risk-on rally is continuing, with major Asian equity indices firmly higher and most global markets rising.

1. The risk-on rally which got renewed impetus last week from strong US economic data which showed no signs of inflation increasing is continuing as markets open this week. Equities are generally higher, especially in Asia where we have seen both the Hang Seng Index and the Nikkei 225 Index closing higher by more than 1.5% on the day.
2. The Japanese Yen remains the weakest major currency over the long term. Friday saw the USD/JPY currency pair make a new 7-month high above ¥145. Trend traders will remain interested in being short of the Japanese Yen, which has also a reached multi-year low Friday against the Euro. The Governor of the Bank of Japan has defended his ultra-loose monetary policy by pointing out that underlying inflation remains below the Bank’s 2% inflation target, although the headline rate is now above 3%.
3. In the Forex market, the New Zealand Dollar has been the strongest major currency over the Asian session, while the Japanese Yen has been the weakest. The US Dollar is continuing to rise today after rallying Friday, with the Dollar Index beginning to suggest it may soon establish a new long-term bullish trend technically, but its chart pattern is still strongly suggestive of consolidation.
4. Cocoa futures are continuing to rise to new multi-year highs, attracting trend traders on the long side. The move is driven by strong demand and poor harvests in parts of Africa.
5. Bitcoin is looking like it will again challenge when seems to be a very pivotal round number at $31k. If the price gets established above this level, it could rise further very quickly.
6. There will be releases later today of Swiss CPI data (expected to show a month-on-month decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%) and US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
7. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be having a policy meeting tomorrow but is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.10%.
8. It is a public holiday in Canada today.