Weak JOLTS Data Boosts Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Weaker than expected JOLTS Job Openings data in the USA yesterday boosted stocks slightly on expectations of a more dovish Fed, but the greenback was unmoved.

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  1. Yesterday’s release of US JOLTS Job Openings data came in lower than expected, showing only 8.73 million jobs when 9.31 million was expected. This boosted stocks a little as it increases the probability of Fed rate cuts, but seemingly not by much as the greenback was little affected by the data.
  2. Australian GDP data showed Q3 economic growth of only 0.2%, notably lower than the 0.5% growth which was expected. It is not clear that this had any affect upon the Australian Dollar.
  3. The Bank of Canada will be holding a policy meeting today. It is expected to leave its Overnight Rate unchanged at 5%.
  4. Bitcoin rose strongly yesterday to reach a new 18-month high above $44,000. The cryptocurrency has declined within the last few hours but will remain interesting on the long side to trend traders.
  5. The long-term bearish trend in the US Dollar is a key driver in the Forex market, pushed by sentiment that the Federal Reserve had likely ended its current tightening cycle, and would begin to cut rates. However, the US Dollar is currently gaining ground, as it has been doing for the last few days. Since the Tokyo open, the New Zealand Dollar has been the strongest major currency, while the Euro has been the weakest.
  6. Crude Oil is looking weak despite Saudi reassurance on OPEC cuts earlier this week and is trading at a new 5-month low.
  7. There will be a release today of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast, which is expected to predict net new non-farm payroll jobs of 131k were created last month.
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