RBA Expected to Hike Rate Later to 4.35%

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely seen as very likely to raise its interest rate by 0.25%, despite pauses at recent meetings of other major central banks.


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  1. There will be a release tomorrow of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, with markets expecting a 25bps hike to 4.35%.
  2. Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan gave a speech a few hours ago in which he stated that he sees the Japanese economy as recovering moderately. This optimism has had little effect on the Yen.
  3. Stock markets are broadly higher as optimism continues to rise that the global round of rate hikes in developed economies is nearly at an end, with an increasing feeling that the US may have already reached its terminal rate within the current cycle, although at least one further rate hike in 2024 is still seen as probable. Major Asian indices are higher today, with the KOSPI Composite Index strongly higher, and both the HSI and the Nikkei 225 up by more than 1.5% on the day.
  4. Hong Kong is considering whether to allow the issue of cryptocurrency ETFs.
  5. In the Forex market, the Swiss Franc is the strongest major currency, while the New Zealand Dollar is the weakest. There is still a valid long-term bullish trend in the USD/JPY currency pair, but it is coming into question due to the recent strong bearish retracement.
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