Markets Expecting 0.2% Monthly US Inflation Inc

The Forex market will be highly focused on today’s US CPI (inflation) data release, which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which would produce a small rise in the annualized rate.

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  1. The Forex market is heavily focused on today’s US inflation data release. Any reading above a monthly increase of 0.2% will be likely to trigger renewed fears of further rate hikes, which would likely drive the Dollar higher, while a lower print could move the Dollar lower. The Forex market will likely spotlight the USD/JPY currency pair which advanced strongly yesterday in line with its long-term bullish trend, and is showing volatility. One reason for its advance is recent Japanese wage and price data which suggests a lack of sustained inflationary pressure, meaning that posited Japanese rate hikes at the end of 2023 look quite unlikely.
  2. Crude Oil remains strong, WTI reaching a new 10-month high price yesterday above $89. OPEC a, making it very attractive to trend traders on the long side. Both and OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration released monthly market reports yesterday which see output cuts as tightening the market, which will likely act to push prices higher. OPEC sees a Q4 deficit of 3.3 million barrels per day.
  3. UK GDP data to be released today is expected to show a monthly contraction of the economy by 0.2%.
  4. Bitcoin is threatening to break down to new 2-month lows as the crypto sector remains weak, but it has bounced back in trading yesterday.
  5. There will be a release today of Australian Unemployment data (unemployment claims), which is expected to show the Australian unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%.
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