Forex Today: Stocks, US Dollar Firmer

Stocks globally are looking more bullish today, while the US Dollar remains quite firm in the Forex market.




  1. US retail sales data released yesterday showed a month-on-month increase of 3.0%, higher than the 1.9% forecasted. This suggests the US economy is still quite “hot” and will reinforce the case for a more hawkish policy from the Fed, which in turn boosted the US Dollar. It also may have caused a little more optimism over stocks, especially concerning consumer staples and discretionary goods. Major stock indices have almost all traded higher over the past day. The S&P 500 Index remains within a bullish flag chart pattern, suggesting that it is likely to see higher prices over the coming days/
  2. The US Dollar continues to be strong, as markets are becoming more firmly convinced that the Dollar will reach a higher terminal rate above 5.25%. The greenback is trading near a 5-week high price. In the Forex market, the New Zealand Dollar is the strongest currency right now, while the Swiss Franc is is the weakest, but it is probably worthwhile putting most focus on the fact that the US Dollar is in a small retracement within what looks to be a firm bullish short-term trend.
  3. The S&P 500 Index made a golden cross the week before lastThis is typically a strong long-term buy signal, although the price has fallen since then.UK CPI (inflation) data released yesterday showed annualized inflation falling by a little more than had been widely expected, to 10.1% from 10.5% – a rate of 10.3% was forecasted.
  4. Australian unemployment data came in worse than expected, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.5% to 3.7% when it was expected to hold steady. This is still a historically low rate.
  5. There will be a release of US PPI (purchasing power index) data later today, which may give more clues regarding US inflation.
  6. Some commodities are performing quite well, with some continuing to rise after having recently made significant bullish breakouts, notably Sugar and Cocoa.
  7. Daily confirmed new global coronavirus cases decreased last week for the eighth consecutive week.
  8. Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 678.1 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.00%. Daily new confirmed cases have fallen to a low level not seen since June 2020.
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