Australian Inflation Rises to 32-Year High

Australian inflation data shows a continuing rise with no sign of peaking, sending the Aussie firmly higher on expectations of stronger rate hikes.

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1. Australian CPI came in higher than expected, showing an increase in its annualized rate to 8.4% at a time when inflation is beginning to show signs of sustained drops in most G20 nations. All the elements of the COU data came in above expectations, so the RBA is now seen as more likely to step up rate hikes, sending the Aussie firmly higher. The AUD/USD currency pair jumped to new 5-month high above $0.7115.
2. The long-term bullish trend in Gold remains valid after Gold make a new 9-month high yesterday, and we have seen Copper maintain its recent strong bullish breakout. These assets are attractive to long-term trend traders in the long direction right now, as higher prices here are likely over the coming days.
3. In the Forex market, the US Dollar is again declining weakly. The Australian Dollar is clearly the strongest major currency, while the New Zealand Dollar is the weakest. The EUR/USD currency pair remains within a valid bullish trend, so it is likely we will see higher prices there over the coming days, but the AUD/USD currency pair is most in focus right now.
4. Markets are awaiting the Bank of Canada’s monthly policy release later today. The Bank is expected to hike its overnight rate by 0.25% from 4.25% to 4.50%.
5. Services and Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday in the UK and the USA was mixed.
6. There are reports that the Bank of Japan will start to phase out its special stimulus measures such as yield curve control shortly after a new governor is appointed during the coming months. This would likely give a more bullish outlook for the Japanese Yen if it happens.
7. It is a public holiday in China all week due to the Chinese New Year.
8. Daily confirmed new global coronavirus cases decreased last week for the fifth consecutive week, but there are serious doubts over the veracity of China’s official statistics, which almost certainly dramatically understate new coronavirus cases.
9. Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 673.7 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.00%. Daily new confirmed cases have fallen to a low level not seen since the summer of 2020.