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Forecast for XAUUSD (GOLD) For 15th August 2022

1) UOM consumer sentiment forecasted at 51.1 but the result was 52.5.

2) Inflation rate in US is very high, FED wants to increase interest rate to 3.5% even though they initially planned it at 2%, however this is not anytime soon and its based on their meeting in September.

3) US want to be the highest exporter of oil since Saudi Arabia and Russia are becoming allies makes US vulnerable as these countries allied to have more control over energy prices and food prices.

4) US crude oil is demanded in Asia, US provide discount for $5 per barrel compare to Brent oil which is at $7 per barrel.

5) Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases reserve until October which will cause US reserve for oil will be lesser. US dollar will go down due to less inventories of oil. 6) Tough competition is oil market is a challenge for US. Oil price will go up and Gold price will also go up bringging US dollar down.

7) FED is likely only hike about 50bps instead of 75bps.

8) PPI, CPI and PCE is low which lead to USD going lower.

a) Producer Price index dropped and was at 0.2% for the forecasted ,but the actual is -0.5%.

b) Consumer Price Index dropped and was forecasted for 0.2% however the actual one is -0.0%.

c) Personal Consumption Expenditure in July was 7.1 %, if the inflation rate is high, PCE is low There is not be much changes for the US dollar strength. 9)Investors focusing long term and their inflation expectations stands at 2.8%. Any reading above 3%, will help USD strength while 2.8% or lower print will rise the price of gold.

10) US China tensions over TaiwaN, Beijing is the world largest gold commidity user. It would affect US dollar.

11) The range based on the fundamental analysis is between 1784- 1800.

XAUUSD : The trend is Bullish

Sources from Investing.com and Forexfactory.com

Any further information,do feel free to contact me , Gurmit at +60142584067.

I will guide anyone personally and i will share my link if you would like to register with Weltrade Malaysia. https://my.weltrade.com/?r1=ipartner&…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSIiAPbDu7o

Translation

1) Sentimen pengguna UOM diramalkan pada 51.1 tetapi hasilnya ialah 52.5.

2) Kadar inflasi di AS sangat tinggi, FED mahu meningkatkan kadar faedah kepada 3.5% walaupun mereka pada mulanya merancangnya pada 2%, namun ini tidak dalam masa terdekat dan ia berdasarkan pertemuan mereka pada bulan September.

3) AS mahu menjadi pengeksport minyak tertinggi sejak Arab Saudi dan Rusia menjadi sekutu menjadikan AS terdedah kerana negara-negara bersekutu mempunyai lebih kawalan ke atas harga tenaga dan harga makanan.

4) Minyak mentah AS dituntut di Asia, AS memberikan potongan harga $5 setong berbanding minyak Brent pada $7 setong.

5) Rizab Petroleum Strategik mengeluarkan rizab sehingga Oktober yang akan menyebabkan rizab minyak AS akan berkurangan. Dolar AS akan turun kerana inventori minyak yang kurang.

6) Persaingan sengit dalam pasaran minyak adalah cabaran bagi AS. Harga minyak akan naik dan harga Emas juga akan naik membawa dolar AS turun.

7) FED berkemungkinan hanya meningkat kira-kira 50bps dan bukannya 75bps.

8) IHPR, CPI dan PCE adalah rendah yang membawa kepada USD turun.

a) Indeks Harga Pengeluar turun dan berada pada 0.2% untuk ramalan, tetapi yang sebenarnya ialah -0.5%.

b) Indeks Harga Pengguna turun dan diramalkan sebanyak 0.2% namun yang sebenar ialah -0.0%.

c) Perbelanjaan Penggunaan Peribadi pada bulan Julai ialah 7.1%, jika kadar inflasi tinggi, PCE rendah Tidak banyak perubahan untuk kekuatan dolar AS.

9) Pelabur memfokuskan jangka panjang dan jangkaan inflasi mereka berada pada 2.8%. Sebarang bacaan melebihi 3%, akan membantu kekuatan USD manakala cetakan 2.8% atau lebih rendah akan menaikkan harga emas.

10) Ketegangan AS China ke atas Taiwan, Beijing adalah pengguna komoditi emas terbesar di dunia. Ia akan menjejaskan dolar AS.

11) Julat berdasarkan analisis asas adalah antara 1784-1800.

XAUUSD :Trend ialah Bullish.

Sumber daripada Investing.com dan Forexfactory.com

Sebarang maklumat lanjut, sila hubungi saya, Gurmit di +60142584067.

Saya akan membimbing sesiapa sahaja secara peribadi dan saya akan berkongsi pautan saya jika anda ingin mendaftar dengan Weltrade Malaysia. https://my.weltrade.com/?r1=ipartner&…

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