EUR/USD dived to as low as 1.0884 last week as the down trend from 1.2348 resumed. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786 next. On the upside, above 1.1038 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extend range trading first.
In the long term picture, in any case, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 holds, the down trend from 1.6039 could still resume through 1.0339 low. However, sustained trading above 1.2516 will argue that the long term trend has reversed.
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