This is a market that is in a downtrend, and I just do not see any reason for that to end.
The Monero market initially tried to rally on Monday but gave back gains to slam into the $150 level. Because of this, we are testing a significant support level, and if we can break down below the $140 level, then it is likely that Monero would get absolutely crushed and we could go much lower. After all, Monero is a relatively alternative crypto coin, so it is likely that as long as risk appetite sentiment is soft, so will this market be.
If we do rally from here, it is likely that the $175 level could offer resistance, especially as the 50 day EMA is reaching towards that level. The 50 day EMA is a significant technical indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, so a break above that would attract quite a bit of attention. Nonetheless, we need to see Bitcoin rally so that the rest of the crypto markets can do the same. After all, Bitcoin calls the shots for everybody, and as long as we continue to see Bitcoin fall apart, Monero has absolutely no chance.
Beyond that, the US dollar is strengthening, so that is something that we need to pay close attention to as well, as that is part of the equation here. You are looking at the value of Monero measured in US dollars, so that means that if the US dollar strengthens, quite often you can pull down the value of Monero, at least in this currency pair. This is a market that is in a downtrend, and I just do not see any reason for that to end. That being said, I could see a little bit of a bounce at the $150 level, so I am not necessarily willing to jump in and become overly aggressive to the downside.
At best, I think we may see a bit of a consolidation area between $150 and $175. The longer we spend going sideways here, the more likely we are to see a positive outcome. That being said, I just do not see that scenario right now, so once we break the $140 level why I willing to start shorting this market going forward. In fact, that could open up a bit of a trapdoor to see this market all the way down to the $100 level rather quickly.
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