EUR/CHF’s decline from 1.0610 extended lower last week and break of 1.0439 support argues that rebound from 1.0298 low has completed at 1.0610. The came after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 1.0298 at 1.0623. Initial bias is now on the downside this week fir retesting 1.0298 low. On the upside, above 1.0480 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.0298 on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rebound from there is still tentatively viewed part of a corrective pattern. That is, larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018) could still extend through 1.0298 to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0667) will argue that the down trend is over, and bring stronger rise back to 1.1149 next.
In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.0947) maintains long term bearishness. Down trend from 1.2004 could still extend lower as long as 1.1149 resistance holds.
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