The three-year yield is currently 0.97%. It has effectively priced in three rate hikes in 2022.
The Fed and the market have penciled in three additional hikes for 2023. Meanwhile, the yield on longer duration treasuries has been headed the opposite way.
If we assume the Fed gets in three hikes with three more still priced in and the bond market behaves like it is now, you get the following bizarre curve.
Hypothetical Yield Curve 2022-12-23
That is not a prediction. It’s a what if that depends on three things.
- Three hikes in 2022
- Three more hikes still penciled in for 2023
- The bond market acts pretty much like it does now
I do not think we see that curve. And I still do not think the Fed gets in three hikes. But even if the Fed does, it’s even more unlikely there will be three further hikes before the Fed gets accused of breaking something.
In short, I expect inversions if the Fed hikes thrice and probably sooner, even if the Fed attempts to micro-manage the curve to meet its expectations.
The Fed Expects 6 Rate Hikes By End of 2023 – I Don’t and You Shouldn’t Either
I discuss projections in The Fed Expects 6 Rate Hikes By End of 2023 – I Don’t and You Shouldn’t Either
But the fact remains There is No Predictive Power in Fed Projections
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