Support at $49,576 looks very pivotal.
Last Monday’s BTC/USD signal was not triggered, as there was no bearish price action when the price first reached the resistance level I had identified at $48,424.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday only.
Long Trade Ideas
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Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $50,153, $49,576, or $48,111.
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Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
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Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
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Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
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Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $51,912 or $53,201 or $53,853.
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Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
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Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
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Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Monday that the technical picture here had become more bearish, with the price dominated by a descending bearish trend line suppressing the price for more than one week. I foresaw lower prices as likely. However, I did think that the support level at $46,381 was likely to produce a firm bullish bounce if reached.
I was correct to be bearish insofar as the price traded lower over most of the day, well into the New York session, before bouncing close to the support level at $46,381 and then rising ever since. I was on the right track as seeing that level as likely to be strong, although my call was not actionable for a long trade.
The technical picture is considerably more bullish, as we have seen a succession of higher lows and higher highs over recent days. The technical feature which really stands out in the price chart below is the support level at $49,576 which looks very likely to hold if reached again, especially as it is confluent with the very major psychological round number at $50k.
The problem bulls are facing is that although risk sentiment is quite good in the market right now, Bitcoin seems to be running out of steam in recent days as it gets close to the resistance level at $51,912. I do not want to take a short trade there as the dominant structure remains bullish.
I am persuaded by the bullish case although I am not strongly bullish. I will take a long trade from any bullish bounce at either of the nearby support levels at $50,153 or $49,576 especially.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled for today regarding the USD.
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