After ‘hope’ unexpectedly falling back to post-COVID lows in November, analysts expected a modest rebound for The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey in December and they were right, thanks to a big bounce in ‘hope’. The headline consumer confidence print rose from a revised higher 111.09 to 115,8 (well above expectations). This was thanks entirely to a rebound in expectations (up from a revised higher 90.2 to 96.9) while current conditions leaked lower (down from 144.4 to 144.1)…
Source: Bloomberg
There was a very small tightenig in the labor market, but all intent and purpose it remains the easiest job market in US history…
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, despite soaring inflation prints and the new Omicron wave, The Conference Board claims that concerns about inflation declined after hitting a 13-year high last month as did concerns about COVID-19.
The Conference Board did add that:
“Looking ahead to 2022, both confidence and consumer spending will continue to face headwinds from rising prices and an expected winter surge of the pandemic.”
Finally, we wonder just what the difference is between the respondents from UMich and The Conference Board…
It seems pretty clear that the Conference Board participants get a little over-excited by the up-trend.
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