Tightening FOMC Minutes Knocks Stocks

Yesterday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes notes that the previous hike was nearly $0.50, mandates balance sheet shrinking by up to $95 billion, and is seen as a small hawkish tilt.

• The Federal Reserve yesterday released the minutes of its most recent meeting. The minutes revealed that members came close to hiking rates by 0.50%, double the actual hike of 0.25%, and that it is planned to shrink the balance sheet by up to $95 billion per month. These represent a very slightly more tightening, hawkish stance so stocks and other risky assets took a small knock upon the release of the minutes, with the S&P 500 Index ending the day back below its 200-day moving average.

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• The Forex market is now dominated by strength in the Euro, the British Pound, and the US Dollar, and weakness in the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Stock markets are bearish and the prices of commodities mostly fell yesterday.
• Bitcoin has continued to trade lower and has just got established below a new resistance level near $44k.
• The Bank of Japan’s Noguchi stated that it is critical to maintain the current monetary policy easing. This is more evidence to suggest the Bank of Japan really wants to see USD/JPY a bit higher, close to ¥130, so there could be a good reason to trade that currency pair long once it begins its next significant bullish breakout.
• Daily new coronavirus cases globally fell last week for the second consecutive week.
• It is estimated that 64.6% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination, while approximately 6.3% of the global population is known to have contracted the virus at some stage.
• Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 495.4 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.25%.
• The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing only in Australia, Barbados, Bhutan, France, Laos, Malta, Samoa, Taiwan, and Vanuatu.
• A hard testing lockdown continues in Shanghai, China where new daily coronavirus cases have increased to record levels.