EUR/CHF dropped sharply to 1.0277 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is still expected as long as 1.0459 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.0298 will extend larger down trend target 61.8% projection of 1.0936 to 1.0298 from 1.0610 at 1.0216. However, strong break of 1.0459 will bring further rebound to 1.0610 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. Sustained break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650. In any case, break of 1.0610 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.0947) maintains long term bearishness. Down trend from 1.2004 could still extend lower as long as 1.1149 resistance holds.
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