While the consensus believed today’s US retail sales for December would come in with a modest 0.1% MoM drop to end 2021, BofA – which has been consistently spot on for months – forecast a much more substantial 1.3% tumble. In reality, things were even worse as Dec retail sales plunged 1.9% MoM (and November was revised weaker)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest MoM drop since Feb 2021.
Ex Autos and Gas, retail sales plunged an even more worrisome 2.5% MoM and worse still, the Control Group – which feeds GDP – crashed 3.1% MoM – massively worse than the unchanged that was expected.
Non-store retailer sales collapsed in December…
But so did Retail and Food Services, Furniture and Electronics…
Notably, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales exploded higher in December (up 10% MoM!), although that is the weakest Dec sales rise since 2018…
As December is the most seasonally-affected month, dramatically increasing uncertainty around any forecasts…
Finally, this chart caught our eye (as the stimmy checks run out)…
Thank the lord for the US government’s handouts!?
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