A Federal Reserve official warned that the central bank would have to move interest rates up more aggressively this year if inflation stays high through the first half of the year. “But if inflation falls back in the second half of the year, as many of us think it will…then you could actually pause and not even go the full three.” Mr. Waller said he thought it would be appropriate to begin raising the Fed’s benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point at the central bank’s policy meeting in March, by which time the Fed will have ended its bond-buying stimulus program.
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